S&P Entry Prices to Watch (POST FOMC)

by Vlad Karpel

Here is our 10 day forecast across the S&P, Apple and other stocks.  Major U.S. indices are on the move up today after yesterday’s FOMC concluded with no interest rate hike.  Here are the dashboards and price levels to watch now that the Fed has passed on an interest rate hike.  S&P, Apple and

 

Fed Chairman Powell came with a dovish tone and reiterated the “wait-and-see” approach previously stated. Likewise, it does not look like 2019 will feature any interest rate hikes while 2020 may. Powell’s comments provided some support for assets but sent Treasury yields lower. Next week, U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Beijing to discuss trade and tariffs, once more, with hopes of a signed agreement nearing. For the time being, U.S. tariffs will remain imposed on China President Trump recently stated. Other significant events to keep an eye on today include Nike’s earnings after the market closes and Levi’s IPO. Monitor Seasonal Charts for advantageous positions as well as the 200-day moving average for market momentum. If we fall below SPY 200-day moving average, $274, expect some downward movement. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Apple Stock Chart

Stocks had an up-and-down day yesterday after initially lowering in the early hours of trading before rallying post-FOMC, with all three major indices in the green during Powell’s press conference, only to close slightly lower. Today, stocks are holding on to nice gains with major indices up 0.5%-1.0%. Levi’s Strauss, jeans and apparel, returned to the New York Stock Exchange at $22.22 and has been on the move up thereafter. Lyft similarly debuted its IPO this week, but many have already labeled the asset “oversubscribed.” Nike will release earnings after the market close with many expecting strong sales and earnings figures. Next week, major earnings lighten up with only a few notable names, Lululemon and RedHat for example. Tomorrow, February Federal budget, wholesale inventories and existing home sales will be released.

Next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Top Trade Advisor Robert Lighthizer will meet with China’s Vice Premier in Beijing to continue negotiations. Likely talking points include scaling back tariffs by both sides while the U.S. will squash any possible Chinese retaliation while current tariffs remain, as Trump previously stated. Aside for China-U.S. negotiations, Brexit remains in global limelight as European officials have made it clear to the U.K., any extension granted will only come with an agreed upon deal Parliament and lawmakers alike endorse. The situation remains tricky as it is unclear if the U.K. will be able to produce such a deal in time. Both Asian and European markets closed to split results with today.

S&P Dashboard AnalysisAnnual Seasonal Cycle - with support and resistance levels

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.33% moves to +0.43% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


HIGHLIGHT OF A RECENT WINNING TRADE

On March 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $178.90 (± 1.01) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $180.69 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of 181.98. The Stop Loss price was set at $177.11.

Trading strategies for Apple stock


FRIDAY MORNING FEATURED STOCK

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured stock for Friday is Broadcom Inc (AVGO). AVGO is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.

The stock is trading at $295.25 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.47% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


OIL

West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CLJ9) is priced at $60.12 per barrel, up 1.85% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.42 at the time of publication, down 1.00% from the open. Vector figures show +0.57% today, which turns +3.06% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

GOLD

The price for April gold (GCJ9) is up 0.32% at $1,305.90 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $123.3, down 1.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.36% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

TREASURIES

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.04% at 2.52% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.37% at 2.96% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.28% moves to -0.08% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

VOLATILITY

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.38% at $13.44  at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.50 with a vector of -0.96%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.