Markets Slip Despite Strong Retail and Earnings Data

by Vlad Karpel

Major U.S. Indicies retreated today, on track to close in the red, with continued pressure from inflation and COVID economic-recovery concerns. Large-cap tech stocks were able provide some support as Apple and Amazon, as well as Tesla, traded higher on Wednesday. Treasury Yields pulled back also which helped limit drops across the market. Better than expected retail sales data for October also offered some support as the last portion of key earnings is set to release in the coming sessions.

We are still expecting earnings to be the main factor influencing markets this week; TGT, WMT, and BIDU are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence market direction. Lowe’s saw shares boosted following strong earnings while Target shares sold off after warnings in its report regarding rising costs worried investors. Also making moves today are Roku, currently down 11% after getting downgraded by analysts, while Moderna rose over 4% following continued expansion and authorization.

The VIX trades near $17 level with fear of runaway inflation impacting next move in action too. Please watch these critical support points on SPY-462 then 455 for us as we do expect that there will continue some pullbacks before rebounding by December. Globally, both Asian and European markets traded to mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:

  • Building Permits (October) – Wednesday
  • Housing Starts (October) – Wednesday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (11/13) – Thursday
  • Leading Economic Indicators (October) – Thursday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Meta Platforms Inc (FB). FB is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The symbol is trading at $340.77 with a vector of -1.08% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, fb. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $77.90 per barrel, down 3.54% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $54.59 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.76% at $1868.20 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $174.51 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.18% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.607% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.002% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.79 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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