FOMC Minutes, Retail Earnings, and Huawei Ban Lead Markets Today
FOMC minutes in focus
Markets trended lower ahead of today’s FOMC minutes release after all three major U.S. indices recorded slight gains yesterday.
Target, Lowe’s, as well as Kraft-Heinz earnings release today
Besides minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting, look for further details on corporate earnings released this morning from Target and Lowe’s, as well as Kraft-Heinz. Best Buy, Hewlett Packard, and Nintendo report tomorrow.
Economic data to be released in the next two days
Significant economic data reports to be released tomorrow and Friday include weekly jobless claims, manufacturing data, new home sales, durable and core capital goods orders.
Technology sector, effected by Huawei tech-ban, trading lower today
Last week’s Huawei tech-ban continues to effect major tech symbols with Intel, Qualcomm, and Apple all trading lower today.
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SPY buying opportunity near $280
SPY is currently trading below its 50-days moving average and we expect the market to continue trading between $280-$294. We recommend our readers consider buying market near $280 and avoid chasing near $290.
Possible rally to $300
If the market breaks $290 resistance expect the market to rally to $300 in the next 30-60 days. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
FOMC minutes today
Minutes from last month’s FOMC are due to release today, offering significant input on current market conditions and economic outlook. The latest policy update kept rates unchanged and the desired inflation rate remains at 2%.
Target and Lowe’s earnings reports make impact on shares
Target shares rose nicely after better than expected results in their latest earnings released this morning while Lowe’s shares slipped significantly following weaker than expected earnings. Yesterday Home Depot and Nordstrom shares also slipped following poor earnings results.
Economic data for next week should be considered
Look for manufacturing data tomorrow, GDP revision and core inflation next week. Globally, both Asian and European markets are mixed.
Huawei ban making the news
Major news to monitor for the remainder of the week includes the continued effect of the Huewai ban, other potential bans and tariffs, as well as China-U.S. negotiation plans.
Apple, Qualcomm, and Intel shares affected by Huawei ban
The latest ban on China tech-giant Huawei caused several U.S. and European tech and communication companies to see significant lowering of shares. Although Google remains up today, Apple, Qualcomm, and Intel are trading lower.
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Banned list of Chinese companies might be bigger
The White House has since stated they are considering adding five more Chinese companies to the banned list, barring them from dealing with or using U.S. software.
Will there be U.S. – China meeting at the G20 summit next month
Yesterday, top China trade ambassador state China was willing to reopen trade negotiations while no word has yet been giving on the U.S. end. Look for both Presidents to meet in next month’s G20 summit.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.08% moves to +0.41% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,848.57. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On May 15th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Whirlpool Corp (WHR). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
WHR entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $129.06 (± 0.82) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $130.35 in the second hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $127.77.
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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Mastercard Inc (MA). MA is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $257.16 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.55% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $61.17 per barrel, down 3.10% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.71 at the time of publication, down 3.00% from the open. Vector figures show +0.36% today, which turns +3.78% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.09% at $1,274.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $120.28, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.03% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Treasuries
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.39% at 2.40% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.11% at 281% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.07% moves to +0.18% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.61% at $15.19 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.92 with a vector of -10.48%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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