FOMC Minutes Released, Positive Manufacturing and Employment Data Support Markets

by Vlad Karpel

All three major U.S. indices on track to finish in the green

Today, impressive manufacturing and employment data supported markets as all three major U.S. indices are on track to finish in the green.

Latest earnings and economic reports topped expectations

U.S. stocks continued trading modestly higher this week behind the latest earnings and economic reports that have topped expectations; Constellations Brands and FedEx saw shares impressively rise following their positive earnings while General Mills, also topping expectations, saw shares dip. Last month’s FOMC meeting’s minutes are due to release today while May Trade Deficit and Employment data are set to release on Thursday. Friday, U.S. markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day Holiday.

Our models project the SPY to trade between $270-$330 level

With SPY trading above $300, aggressive traders can consider adding to their positions until the market reaches $320 level. Our models are projecting the SPY to trade between $270-$330 level and it is our opinion the market remains overbought. We will continue monitoring VIX, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near $30 level, and we will be buyers into any short-term corrections. Short-term traders could consider adding to positions when SPY near $293 and reducing exposure to the market at $320. Investors should consider hedging portfolios into the rallies and we encourage maintaining clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. indices recorded modest gains today. Oil traded higher while the dollar and gold, typically trading inversely of each other, both traded lower. Next week, earnings remain light while additional May and June economic reports are due.

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week

  • ADP Employment Report (June) – Wednesday
  • FOMC Minutes – Wednesday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (6/20) – Thursday
  • Unemployment Rate (June) – Thursday
  • Average Hourly Earnings (June) – Thursday
  • Trade Deficit (May) -Thursday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Akamai Technologies (AKAM). AKAM is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (C) indicating it ranks in the top 50th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.

The stock is trading at $106.51, with a vector of +0.42% at the time of publication.

Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, AKAM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here. 


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $39.79 per barrel, up 1.32% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $28.42 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.08% at $1,781.30 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $166.52, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.03% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.683% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.432% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $28.94 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 


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