FOMC Minutes Confirm Support Through Pandemic, S&P Reaches Record Close
FOMC minutes released
U.S. Benchmarks saw muted action on Wednesday while still being able to notch another record close this year, with the S&P finishing at $4,079.95. The Dow also saw modest gains while the Nasdaq finished slightly lower as the latest FOMC minutes were released. The minutes primarily provided positive sentiment and support as the Fed appeared to signal they will continue to support the economy through the pandemic while being in no rush to tighten monetary policy.
32% of the U.S. population received at least one vaccine dose
On the COVID-front, the latest CDC report showed 32% of the U.S. population have received at least one vaccine dose, falling in line with estimates of full availability for all U.S. adults within weeks. Next week, earnings are set to pick up with major banks releasing quarterly data as well as the latest Beige Book and Federal Budget report. Globally, both European and Asian markets finished with mixed results.
The SPY was able to break out above the $400 level across all asset classes and our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $385-$420 for the next 6 weeks. $SPY broke above the $400 level following the recent rebound and deteriorating momentum behind treasury and currency markets. The DXY sold off and the TLT continues to trade in the range. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
- Markit Services PMI (March) – Monday
- ISM Services Index (March) – Monday
- Factory Orders (February) – Monday
- Job Openings (February) – Tuesday
- Trade Deficit (February) – Wednesday
- Consumer Credit (February) – Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes – Wednesday
- Weekly Jobless Claims (4/3) – Thursday
- Producer Price Index (March) – Friday
- Wholesale Inventories (February) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Honeywell International Inc. (HON). HON is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $218.5 with a vector of +0.62% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, HON. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) priced at $59.56 per barrel, up 0.39% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $40.53 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) down 0.26% at $1738.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $159.96 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.05% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.745% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.414% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $19.4 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session