FOMC Keeps Rates, Markets Near All-Time High
U.S. indices up after Fed decision
Major U.S. indices moved higher ahead of today’s Fed decision which held rates at unchanged.
Rates unchanged until 2020
Following the meeting markets remained in the green as Jerome Powell met with the press and expanded on policy update, leading many to believe rates will be held until 2020.
Trump-Xi meeting lift U.S. markets
Yesterday, the market rose impressively behind the news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi will have an extended meeting during the Group of 20 meeting later this month in Japan.
Other notable news today
Other news to monitor today includes Oracle earnings after market close and a possible CBS acquisition.
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SPY buy zone near $286 and avoid chasing at $296
With the market near an all-time high, we encourage our readers to monitor SPY overhead resistance, currently at $296. Look to buy near $286 and avoid chasing at $296.
Market momentum not carrying SPY above $300 level
Although we expect markets to remain between $286-$296, we do not see market momentum carrying SPY above $300 level. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
In a nine-to-one vote, the Federal Open Market Committee chose to keep rates unchanged following their June policy-setting meeting. Feds were unmoved by the slight dip in employment and chose to focus on employment data this year as a whole, which has remained positive. Inflation remains below the desired level which also supported the Fed’s decision to keep rates at 2.25-2.5%. The next meeting is scheduled for July 30-31 although whether a rate cut will happen this year is still undetermined. U.S. Treasury rates were in the green before the meeting but have since dipped into the red. The dollar is also trading slightly lower today.
Apart from today’s FOMC, look for Oracle earnings after the market closes today while Canopy Growth and Carmax round out the week in notable earnings reports. Manufacturing data is due Friday along with existing home sales. Next week, look for new home sales, durable goods orders, GDP revision, and core inflation data. CBS Corporation saw nice gains today behind the news that the conglomerate is preparing an offer to buy Viacom, which also received a nice boost. Globally, Asian markets closed higher while European markets were mixed.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.08% moves to +1.11% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On June 5th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Under Armour Inc (UAA). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
UAA entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $24.70 (± 0.16) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $24.95 in the second hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $24.45.
Thursday Morning Featured Symbol
*Please note: At the time of publication we do own the featured symbol, AMZN. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Amazon (AMZ). AMZN is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $1909.56 at the time of publication, with a +0.76% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $54.11 per barrel, up 0.58% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $11.3 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +0.94% today, which turns +0.44% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.99% at $1,363.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $128.15, up 1.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.39% at 2.03% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.44% at 2.54% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.09% moves to -0.16% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 5.61% at $14. at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.72 with a vector of +4.77%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.