Following Dow’s 30,000 Peak, Markets Trade to Mixed Results Ahead of Thanksgiving Holiday

by Vlad Karpel

Strong Microsoft performance help Nasdaq close in green

Markets traded to mixed results today as the S&P and Dow closed in the red while Nasdaq, powered by a strong Microsoft performance, closed in the green. Yesterday, the Dow Jones closed above 30,000 for the first time as additional positive vaccine news supported markets.

FOMC minutes released today

Several key economic reports were released today to mixed results, such as weekly unemployment, personal income, and home sales; this month’s FOMC minutes were also released today and echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s sentiment while talking with the press following the early November meeting. Noted in the minutes were discussions of additional guidance which could include further bond-purchasing and qualitative outcome-based guidance for asset purchases.

Salesforce to acquire Slack

Slack saw its shares rise after a possible acquisition by Salesforce was announced. Salesforce will be one of the key earnings released next week as Q3 earnings seasons winds down. Globally, Asian and European markets traded to mixed results. Markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, while a shortened trading day is scheduled for Friday.

 

Our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade between the $340-$360 levels- until an additional breakout is confirmed. Similarly, we are seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks and believe the SPY is on its way to retest its recent highs. With the market prone to further corrections, the next level of support is set at $350. We will continue monitoring VIX levels, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near the $25 level. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week

  • Weekly Jobless Claims (11/21) -Wednesday
  • Gross Domestic Product (Q3) – Wednesday
  • Durable Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
  • Core Capital Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
  • New Home Sales (October) – Wednesday
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (November) – Wednesday
  • Personal Income (October) – Wednesday
  • Consumer Spending (October) Wednesday
  • Core Inflation (October) – Wednesday
  • Thanksgiving Day Holiday (Markets Closed) – Thursday
  • Early Close (1 PM ET) – Friday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Tyson Foods (TSN). TSN is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The stock is trading at $64.99 with a vector of +1.03% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, HAL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here. 


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $45.86 per barrel, up 2.12% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $31.37 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.08% at $1806.10 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $169.51, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.40% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.886% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.624% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $21.25 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 


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