Earnings Week Forecast

by Vlad Karpel

What to Watch for During First-Quarter Earnings!

It’s a big week for first-quarter earnings! Markets modestly trade today ahead of the biggest week of earnings this quarter thus far, with over 500 reports set to release. Industry leaders Amazon, Boeing, Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, as well as other notable market influencers, will report their first-quarter earnings while Q1 U.S. GDP is due Friday.


Oil’s Big Surge

Oil’s recent surge can be attributed to recent U.S.-Iran developments while the latest housing data shows a slowdown for the month of March. Tesla remains in the spotlight with its Automation Day event taking place today after some troubling news that affected shares negatively.

After the Sri Lanka bombings, social media networks were closed off to expedite the ongoing investigation with officials reporting the move is a way of improving public safety. All of this ahead of first-quarter earnings.

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Impact on the S&P Instruments

Look for more on this, and the major earnings due to release, as the week goes on. With the market still above its 200-day moving average, most indicators point to a retest of 52 weeks high for the SPY, $294. The support level for SPY remains at $280-$284 and we recommend monitoring these levels as well as Seasonal Charts heading into first-quarter earnings.

For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Major Index Summary Ahead of Earnings

Major U.S. indices are reporting trading slight losses and slight gains as the Dow Jones remains on track to close -0.10% while S&P and Nasdaq are looking at gains of 0.03%. Boeing remains in the red after recent 737 Max jet issues made headlines ahead of its Wednesday earnings report while Haliburton reported better-than-expected data in both revenue and guidance, causing shares to slightly rise for first-quarter earnings. Look for Whirlpool earnings after market close today.

Tomorrow, earnings from Coca-Cola, Harley-Davidson, Procter & Gamble, Twitter, and Verizon will be released before the market opens while eBay, Snap, and TD Ameritrade report after the closing bell. Other earnings this week to follow include AT&T, Facebook, Microsoft, and Visa on Wednesday, Comcast and Amazon on Thursday.

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Home Sales Data and Trump Oil Wavers

Existing Home Sales data released today showed a decent slow down in sales for the month of March; New-Home Sales data for March is due tomorrow as part of the first-quarter earnings report.

Oil’s recent rally comes after Trump announced he is not planning on renewing waivers that sanctioned countries which purchased oil from Iran.

This development spiked oil to a multi-month high, causing some concern from suppliers and buyers alike as well as countries such as China which were already subjected to such waivers.

Other Major News to Watch

Other major news to monitor today includes Tesla big event promoting automation in its electronic vehicles while several poor reports surrounding the company from over the weekend seem to weigh on shares, currently down 3%.

The event, which features the latest data on self-driving technology, looks to be a bright spot for the company after the company’s multiple social-media spats, ranging from short-sellers to one of its critical suppliers, Panasonic. Look for more on this as well as the company’s Q1 earnings as the week progresses.

Not sure how to trade during earnings season? Check out our free training!

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.08% moves to -0.46% in five trading sessions. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  



HIGHLIGHT OF A RECENT WINNING TRADE

On April 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Sysco Corp (SYY). ActiveTrader is included in paid Tradespoon memberships. It is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

SYY entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $68.12 (± 0.12) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $38.80 in the last hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was $67.44.


TUESDAY MORNING FEATURED STOCK

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations.

Not sure how to trade during earnings season? Check out our free training!

U.S. Bancorp. (USB)

Our featured stock for Tuesday is U.S. Bankcorp. (USB). USB is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade: ‘A’. This indicates that it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $51.42 at the time of publication with a +2.28% vector figure.

Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil Recap

West Texas Intermediate for May (CLK9) is $65.66 per barrel. This is up 2.59% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $13.64 at the time of publication, up 2.00% from the open.  Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Not sure how to trade during earnings season? Check out our free training!

Gold Recap

The price for June gold (GCM9) is up 0.09% at $1,277.20 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $120.4 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.06% for today.

Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

TREASURIES

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.78% at 2.58% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is at 2.96% at the time of publication.

Not sure how to trade during earnings season? Check out our free training!

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.36% moves to -0.22% in three sessions.

Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

VOLATILITY

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 3.97% at $12.57 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.85 with a vector of +2.22%. Data updated at market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.