Corporate Earnings Season, Retail Data, and U.S.-China Trade Deal Key This Week
No additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were due to increase on Tuesday
Markets are muted today after seeing a nice boost on Friday sparked by the announcement of “phase one” of the U.S.-China trade deal. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that were due to increase on Tuesday will not be put into effect while the two sides try to sign a deal. While a bigger trade deal could also be in the works, focus this week shifts to corporate-earnings season. Major banks Citigroup, Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America are due to report as well as Netflix, Coca-Cola, IBM, and many more.
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Sell SPY near $300
With the market trading between $294 and $302 for the SPY, we will look to sell near $300 as we do not believe the market has the potential to overshoot all-time high of $302. Although the market is range-bound, further volatility is expected and we recommend readers maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Productive U.S.-China two-day meeting last week
The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are off to muted starts this week, trading slight gain for slight losses, as skepticism regarding the U.S.-China deals after a productive two-day meeting last week. The first part of the deal had been reported before the market closed Friday which supported stocks, this week look for the deal to be signed as further tariffs this month are, for the time being, delayed. Additional deals will likely continue to be negotiated as the next round of increases are set for December.
Other global trade concerns to monitor include further Brexit and U.S. impeachment proceedings as developments, in either event, will surely affect global markets. Globally, Asian markets closed in the green while European markets closed lower.
This week, corporate earnings season for third-quarter reports begins with major banks and financial institutes reporting; this includes Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. Other key reports will come from IBM, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris. No economic reports are due today in observance of Columbus Day while Wednesday will feature key data from the U.S. Beige Book and September Retail Sales report.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.00% moves to -0.19% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On October 10th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
WMT entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $118.93 (± 0.36) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $120.12 in the second hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $117.74.
Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, GT. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Goodyear Tire Rubber (GT). GT is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The symbol is trading at $14.47 at the time of publication, up 6.16% from the open with a +1.71% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $53.53 per barrel, down 2.14% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $11.17 at the time of publication, down 2.19% from the open. Vector figures show -0.40% today, which turns +0.28% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.60% at $1,497.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $140.74, up 0.51% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.37% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Bond Market is closed today (10/14/2019) in observance of Colombus day.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 4.94% at $14.81 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $17.19. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.