Corporate Earnings Season Begins, Stimuli Talks Stall

by Vlad Karpel

Our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $318-$360 and we will look to be buyers into any short-term corrections. Markets dipped today as fiscal stimulus talks continue to stall. All three major U.S. indices closed in the red today as the second day of meaningful earnings was underway. Wells Fargo and Bank of America saw shares dip over 5% after their earnings released while Goldman Sachs edged slightly higher. Corporate earnings season will continue with Walgreens tomorrow while September retail data is due Friday.

With no signs of progress on an economic package in D.C., U.S. markets slipped for the second straight day. Globally, Asian and European markets both closed to mixed results. Short-term traders could consider adding to positions when SPY is near $340. We continue monitoring VIX levels as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near the $25 level. As always, we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week

  • Producer Price Index (September) – Wednesday
  • Import Price Index (September) – Wednesday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (10/10) – Thursday
  • Retail Sales (September) – Friday
  • Industrial Production Index (September) – Friday
  • Capacity Utilization (September) – Friday
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (October) – Friday
  • Business Inventories (August) – Friday

Upcoming Earnings

  • UNH – UnitedHealth Group – Wednesday
  • BAC – Bank Of America – Wednesday
  • WFC – Wells Fargo Co. – Wednesday
  • GS – The Goldman Sachs – Wednesday
  • USB – U.S. Bancorp – Wednesday
  • PGR – The Progressive Corp. – Wednesday
  • PNC – PNC Financial Services Group – Wednesday
  • UAL – United Airlines – Wednesday
  • HON – Honeywell International – Thursday
  • WBA – Walgreens Boots Alliance – Thursday
  • DOV – Dover Corporations – Thursday
  • HDB – HDFC Bank – Friday
  • CFG – Citizens Financial Group – Friday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE). ADBE is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The stock is trading at $506.31 with a vector of -0.40% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, ADBE. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here. 


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $39.35 per barrel, up 6.21% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $28.07 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.52% at $1,917.60 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $180.56, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.772% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.581% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $25.07 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 


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