Another Positive Vaccine Trial and Key PMI Data Help Markets Hold Gains to Start Shortened Trade Week

by Vlad Karpel

On the heels of another successful vaccine trial and key Purchasing Managers’ Index reports, U.S. markets maintained gains to start the shortened trading week. All three indices traded in the green today with the Dow leading the pack at over 1% gains. Manufacturing, services, and composite PMI reports were released today ahead of another week of retail earnings which features Dell Technologies, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Urban Outfitters.

AstraZeneca PLC vaccine return a 70% success rate

Overseas, Asian markets traded to mixed results while European markets closed in the red. With two vaccines already posting positive results, the latest trial to go well included The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca PLC vaccine, which returned a 70% success rate.

Tony Blinken- selected to be Secretary of State

Elsewhere, the Biden transition team named two future appointees in Tony Blinken- selected to be Secretary of State- and former Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen- selected as Treasury Secretary. Markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, while a shortened trading day is scheduled for Friday.

SPY support is set at $350

Markets recently traded above all-time high levels and our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade between the $340-$360 levels- until an additional breakout is confirmed. Similarly, we are seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks and believe the SPY is on its way to retest its recent highs. With the market prone to further corrections, the next level of support is set at $350. We will continue monitoring VIX levels, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near the $25 level. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (November) – Monday
  • Markit Services PMI (November) – Monday
  • Consumer Confidence Index (November) – Tuesday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (11/21) -Wednesday
  • Gross Domestic Product (Q3) – Wednesday
  • Durable Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
  • Core Capital Goods Orders (October) – Wednesday
  • New Home Sales (October) – Wednesday
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (November) – Wednesday
  • Personal Income (October) – Wednesday
  • Consumer Spending (October) Wednesday
  • Core Inflation (October) – Wednesday
  • Thanksgiving Day Holiday (Markets Closed) – Thursday
  • Early Close (1 PM ET) – Friday

Upcoming Earnings

  • A – Agilent Technologies – Monday
  • WMG – Warner Music Group – Monday
  • URBN – Urban Outfitters – Monday
  • BBY – Best Buy – Tuesday
  • ADSK – Autodesk Inc – Tuesday
  • DELL – Dell Technologies – Tuesday
  • ADI – Analog Devices – Tuesday
  • MDT – Medtronic – Tuesday
  • DE – Deere & Company – Wednesday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Haliburton Company (HAL). HAL is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The stock is trading at $15.9 with a vector of +0.95% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, HAL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here. 


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $42.86 per barrel, up 1.06% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $29.02 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 2.05% at $1834.00 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $175.67, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.08% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.935% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.717% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.66 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 


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