$1.9 Trillion Relief Package Passed in Congress

by Vlad Karpel

Approved $1.9 trillion relief bill

U.S. markets saw solid gains in early morning trading only to gain additional support following the passing of the latest stimulus package in Congress. After passing through the Senate over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the $1.9 trillion relief bill which should be signed by President Biden on Friday. Following the signing, the Dow Jones led the way with over 1.5% gain while the S&P and Nasdaq booked small gains.

Slight increase in inflation last month

While the tech sector continued to see selling pressure, financial and energy stocks saw a boost today as yield rates saw a slight pullback following several sessions of gains. The latest consumer-price report indicated a slight increase in inflation last month while key employment data is due Thursday. February’s Federal Budget report was also released today and showed a $311 billion widening deficit, above expectations, from last year. Next week, several earnings are set to release including Nike, FedEx, and Dollar General, while Starbucks will hold its annual symposium. Globally, both Asian and European markets were mixed today.

 

Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $364-$390. It is our opinion the worst part of the correction is over and the SPY is close to a bottom. The next level of support set at the 50-day moving average of $364-$370. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart shown below:

Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week

  • Consumer Price Index (February) – Wednesday
  • Core CPI (February) – Wednesday
  • Federal Budget (February) – Wednesday
  • Job Openings (January) – Thursday
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (3/6) – Thursday

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For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

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Thursday Morning Featured Symbol

Our featured symbol for Thursday is Boeing Company (BA). BA is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The stock is trading at $244.41 with a vector of +0.43% at the time of publication.

10-Day Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, BA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. Not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) priced at $64.69 per barrel, up 1.08% at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $43.67 at the time of publication. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.34% at $1722.60 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $161.66 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.51% for today. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.527% at the time of publication.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.248% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.67 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session


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